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Probabilistic safety assessment of self-centering steel braced frame

Navid RAHGOZAR, Nima RAHGOZAR, Abdolreza S. MOGHADAM

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2018年第12卷第1期页码 163-182 doi: 10.1007/s11709-017-0384-z

摘要： The main drawback of conventional braced frames is implicitly accepting structural damage under the design earthquake load, which leads to considerable economic losses. Controlled rocking self-centering system as a modern low-damage system is capable of minimizing the drawbacks of conventional braced frames. This paper quantifies main limit states and investigates the seismic performance of self-centering braced frame using a Probabilistic Safety Assessment procedure. Margin of safety, confidence level, and mean annual frequency of the self-centering archetypes for their main limit states, including PT yield, fuse fracture, and global collapse, are established and are compared with their acceptance criteria. Considering incorporating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the efficiency of the system is examined. Results of the investigation indicate that the design of low- and mid-rise self-centering archetypes could provide the adequate margin of safety against exceeding the undesirable limit-states.

关键词： self-centering steel braced frame mean annual frequency safety assessment confidence level margin of safety

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Safety assessment for buried drainage box culvert under influence of underground connected aisle blasting

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第17卷第2期页码 191-204 doi: 10.1007/s11709-022-0906-1

摘要： Blasting engineering in complex urban environments is considered to influence the safety and stability of the overlying drainage box culvert structure owing to vibration. Therefore, field blasting and vibration tests were performed on the blasting engineering of the Wuhan Metro Line 8 connected aisle, and the LS-DYNA software was used to analyze the dynamic response characteristics of an underground drainage box culvert during the blasting test. The vibration response evolution law of the buried drainage box culvert under blasting vibration was investigated, and a safe surface control standard for the blast vibration of a drainage box culvert is proposed. The results reveal that the maximum tensile stress of the box culvert structure was 0.33 MPa. The peak particle velocity (PPV) and peak tensile stress (PTS) of the drainage box culvert decreased as the water level in the box culvert increased. Based on the relationship between the tensile stress of the box culvert, PPV of the box culvert, and PPV of the surface, it is proposed that the surface control velocity of the buried drainage box culvert is 1.36 cm/s.

关键词： drainage box culvert underpass blasting dynamic response numerical simulation safety assessment

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Long-term behavior and safety assessment of Sance Rockfill Dam

Marta DOLEZALOVA, Ivo HLADIK

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2011年第5卷第1期页码 79-89 doi: 10.1007/s11709-010-0010-9

摘要： Safety assessment of the 62 m high Sance Rockfill Dam based on long-term monitoring results and their simulation by numerical models is presented in the paper. Unexpectedly large settlements and horizontal movements of the crest together with the steep downstream slope questioned the safety of the dam. Calibrated 2D and 3D models fitting the monitoring results were applied for the safety assessment of the dam including slope stability analysis and estimation of the clay core cracking and hydraulic fracturing hazard. The modeling results contributed to the rehabilitation concept and project of the dam.

关键词： rockfill dam path dependence creep calibration cracking hydraulic fracturing hazard

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Early assessment of the safety and immunogenicity of a third dose (booster) of COVID-19 immunization

《医学前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第1期页码 93-101 doi: 10.1007/s11684-021-0914-x

摘要： Inducing durable and effective immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) via vaccination is essential to combat the current pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It has been noticed that the strength of anti-COVID-19 vaccination-induced immunity fades over time, which calls for an additional vaccination regime, as known as booster immunization, to restore immunity among previously vaccinated populations. Here we report a pilot open-label trial of a third dose of BBIBP-CorV, an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (Vero cell), on 136 participants aged between 18 to 63 years. Safety and immunogenicity in terms of neutralizing antibody titers and cytokine/chemokine responses were analyzed as the main endpoint until day 28. While systemic reactogenicity was either absent or mild, SARS-CoV-2-specific neutralizing antibody titers rapidly arose in all participants within 4 weeks, surpassing the peak antibody titers elicited by the initial two-dose immunization regime. Broad increases of cellular immunity-associated cytokines and chemokines were also detected in the majority of participants after the third vaccination. Furthermore, in an exploratory study, a newly developed recombinant protein vaccine, NVSI-06-08 (CHO Cells), was found to be safe and even more effective than BBIBP-CorV in eliciting humoral immune responses in BBIBP-CorV-primed individuals. Together, these results indicate that a third immunization schedule with either homologous or heterologous vaccine showed favorable safety profiles and restored potent SARS-CoV-2-specific immunity, providing support for further trials of booster vaccination in larger populations.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine immunization booster immunization

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基于Vague集的系统安全综合评价

刘爱华,施式亮,吴　超

《中国工程科学》 2007年第9卷第3期页码 58-61

摘要：

系统安全中存在含糊性和不可分辨性，Fuzzy综合评价只能从正面解决含糊性问题，而Vague集具有对不确定数据更强、更灵活的直觉表达能力，由此提出把Vague集运用到综合评价当中，并使用改进层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重，建立了基于Vague集的系统安全综合评价模型。通过对陕西某高层建筑火灾危险评价实例证明，该模型能使系统安全评价结果更准确、合理。

关键词：系统安全 Vague集综合评价权重

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水下隧道盾构法施工安全风险评估探讨

卢浩,施烨辉,戎晓力

《中国工程科学》 2013年第15卷第10期页码 91-96

摘要：

随着地铁、公路等交通隧道的不断发展，隧道往往穿越江河湖泊等水体，大直径泥水平衡盾构广泛应用于水下隧道施工。大直径盾构施工风险高、控制难度大，加上水下施工不确定因素多，风险因素具有不断动态变化的特点，使得施工过程中存在较大的风险。风险评估越来越多地应用于水下隧道施工安全管理中。本文介绍了大直径泥水盾构的几个特点，并对这几个特点引起风险增大的机理进行了分析，针对风险评估常用的几种方法中存在的不足，提出了一种适用于类似工程的指数法，给出了该方法的评估流程及基本计算模型，并将该方法初步应用于某水下隧道施工风险评估。该方法能够适应风险因素的变化，并且不拘泥于真实概率，通过进一步的细化和完善，能够更好地适用于水下隧道施工安全风险评估。

关键词：水下隧道安全风险动态评估

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长江堤防安全评价的理论方法和实现策略

李青云,张建民

《中国工程科学》 2005年第7卷第6期页码 7-13

摘要：

对长江堤防安全评价的理论与方法进行了较为系统的阐述。重点论述了长江中下游堤防的特点和破坏机理，分析了与堤防安全有关的基本因素；针对堤防安全评价的层次性和动态性等特点，初步建立了长江中下游堤防安全评价的理论框架，提出了堤防安全评价的流程与方法。

关键词：长江堤防安全评价指标体系层次分析

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基于危险分析与风险评价的液压提升机安全设计

彭佑多,高光辉,郭迎福, 吴立桃,李新

《中国工程科学》 2010年第12卷第2期页码 70-75

摘要：

介绍了液压提升机的安全性能要求，对液压提升机进行了危险分析和风险评价，确定了各子系统的危险分值，得到了安全设计中必须高度关注的子系统；进行了各子系统的安全可靠度的预计与分配，并简要分析了子系统的安全设计要点，为液压提升机的安全可靠性分析与设计提供了依据。

关键词：液压提升机安全设计危险分析风险评价安全可靠性

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Assessing the impact on groundwater safety of inter-basin water transfer using a coupled modeling approach

Haifeng JIA,Shidong LIANG,Yansong ZHANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2015年第9卷第1期页码 84-95 doi: 10.1007/s11783-014-0741-2

摘要： Surface water and groundwater always behave in a coupled manner and are major components of hydrologic cycle. However, surface water simulation models and groundwater simulation models are run separately most of the time. Few models focus on the impact of hydraulic changes in the surface water flows on the groundwater, or specifically, the impact of a water transfer project to fill a seasonally dry channel. In this study, a linked surface water and groundwater simulation model was developed to assess the impact of a trans-basin water diversion project on the groundwater. A typical plain area east of Beijing was selected as a case study, representing Beijing’s main source of groundwater used for drinking water. A surface water quality model of the Chaobai River was developed based on the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP), and a groundwater model was developed based on the Modular Finite-Difference Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW) and the Modular 3-D transport model (MT3D). The results of the surface water simulation were used as input for the groundwater simulation. Water levels and four contaminants (NH -N, COD , F, As) were simulated. With the same initial and boundary conditions, scenario analyses were performed to quantify the impact of different quantities of diversion water on the groundwater environment. The results showed the water quality of the groundwater sources was not significantly affected.

关键词： surface water groundwater linked model groundwater safety impact assessment water diversion

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机电装备的失效分析、安全评定和无损检测

钟群鹏,武淮生,张峥,田永江

《中国工程科学》 1999年第1卷第1期页码 43-48

摘要：

从认识论的高度阐明失效、失效分析和预防在人类科学技术发展中的属性、地位和作用。失效分析和预防具有多学科交叉综合的属性，它的发展依赖于应用学科、应用基础学科、甚至于基础学科的发展，但又对它们的发展起重要反转作用和影响。因此，它是科学技术第一生产力中最积极、最活跃的因素之一。从方法论的角度进一步叙述了失效分析与失效预防之间的辩证关系。失效分析是一种事后的逆向思维过程，它是从异常现象（结果）到因素（模式、原因和机理）的反向科技探索，而失效预防（安全评定）则是从因素到结果的一种事先的正向思维过程。逆向思维与正向思维协同并用，事后分析转化为事先分析，构成科学技术研究活动和科技发展的全过程，两者不可偏废。综述了失效分析和失效预防（安全评定）的主要内容、技术、方法和它们的发展趋势，并提出它们与无损检测技术之间的关系。

关键词：机电装备失效分析安全评定无损检测

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Safety and serviceability assessment for high-rise tower crane to turbulent winds

Zhi SUN, Nin HOU, Haifan XIANG

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第1期页码 18-24 doi: 10.1007/s11709-009-0009-2

摘要： Tower cranes are commonly used facilities for the construction of high-rise structures. To ensure their workability, it is very important to analyze their response and evaluate their condition under extreme conditions. This paper proposes a general scheme for safety and serviceability assessment of high-rise tower crane to turbulent winds based on time domain buffeting response analysis. Spatially correlated wind velocity field at the location of the tower crane was first simulated using an algorithm for generating the time domain samples of a stationary, multivariate stochastic process according to some prescribed spectral density matrix. The buffeting forces applied to the structure were computed according to the above-simulated wind velocity fluctuations and the lift, drag, and moment coefficients obtained from a CFD computation. Those spatially correlated loads were then fed into a well calibrated finite element model and the nonlinear time history analysis was conducted to compute structural buffeting response. Compared with structural on-site response measurement, the computed response using the proposed method has good precision. The proposed method is then adopted for analyzing the buffeting response of an in-use tower crane under the design wind speed and the maximum operational wind speed for safety and serviceability assessment.

关键词： tower crane buffeting response wind velocity modeling

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Process synthesis with simultaneous consideration of inherent safety-inherent risk footprint

Andreja Nemet, Jiří J. Klemeš, Zdravko Kravanja

《化学科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2018年第12卷第4期页码 745-762 doi: 10.1007/s11705-018-1779-7

摘要：

Process plants should be designed to be economically viable and environmentally friendly, while also being operable and maintainable during process implementation. The safety of processes is among the most important considerations in obtaining results that are more acceptably realistic, as it is linked to the availability and reliability of the process. Inherent safety can effectively be enhanced in the early stages of the design, when the main decisions on process design are made. The aim of this study is to enhance and select the appropriate risk assessment method and to incorporate it into process synthesis, using a mathematical programming approach. A mixed-integer, nonlinear programming (MINLP) model was used for the synthesis of a methanol production process, considering risk assessment during the synthesis. Risk assessment is performed simultaneously with the MINLP process synthesis, where the risk is determined either for the whole process as overall risk, or on a per unit-of-a-product basis. For the latter, a new measurement is proposed: the inherent risk footprint. The results of a case study led to two main conclusions: (i) Significantly safer designs can be obtained at negligible economic expense, and (ii) at higher production capacities, a lower inherent risk footprint can be achieved. The results also indicate that designs obtained using this method can have significantly increased inherent safety, while remaining economically viable.

关键词： inherent safety process design simultaneous risk assessment risk footprint methanol process

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Variability of waste copper slag concrete and its effect on the seismic safety of reinforced concrete

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第1期页码 117-130 doi: 10.1007/s11709-021-0788-7

摘要： Proven research output on the behavior of structures made of waste copper slag concrete can improve its utilization in the construction industry and thereby help to develop a sustainable built environment. Although numerous studies on waste copper slag concrete can be found in the published literature, no research has focused on the structural application of this type of concrete. In particular, the variability in the strength properties of waste copper slag concrete, which is required for various structural applications, such as limit state design formulation, reliability-based structural analysis, etc., has so far not attracted the attention of researchers. This paper quantifies the uncertainty associated with the compressive-, flexural- and split tensile strength of hardened concrete with different dosages of waste copper slag as fine aggregate. Best-fit probability distribution models are proposed based on statistical analyses of strength data generated from laboratory experiments. In addition, the paper presents a reliability-based seismic risk assessment of a typical waste copper slag incorporated reinforced concrete framed building, considering the proposed distribution model. The results show that waste copper slag can be safely used for seismic resistant structures as it results in an identical probability of failure and dispersion in the drift demand when compared with a conventional concrete building made of natural sand.

关键词： waste copper slag quantification of variability goodness-of-fit test seismic risk assessment PSDM

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高土石坝工程安全评价与预警信息管理系统

张宗亮,于玉贞,张丙印

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第12期页码 33-37

摘要：

基于现场监测数据及先进的数值分析方法，建立土石坝全生命周期的工程安全评价及预警信息系统，是目前土石坝发展的必然趋势。以糯扎渡高心墙堆石坝为依托，开发了理论严密、方法先进且可靠实用的大坝工程安全评价与预警信息管理系统。该系统由系统管理模块、安全指标模块、监测数据与工程信息模块、数值计算模块、反演分析模块、安全预警与应急预案模块和数据库及管理模块共7个模块构成。其中，数值计算和反演分析模块可利用所取得的坝体监测数据，进行渗流、大坝应力变形、坝体裂缝、地震动力反应和坝坡稳定等土石坝关键计算分析，是本系统的核心部分。利用工程前期已经取得的坝体变形监测数据，对坝体进行了变形反演分析并对大坝关键时间结点的形态进行了预测分析。

关键词：糯扎渡水电站大坝安全评价预警信息管理系统反演分析

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区域定量风险评价方法及其在城市重大危险源安全规划中的应用

吴宗之,多英全,魏利军,关磊

《中国工程科学》 2006年第8卷第4期页码 46-49

摘要：

介绍了区域定量风险评价的基本原理和评价指标，建立了基于网格差分的风险计算模型，给出了定量风险评价的程序，开发了个人风险的计算软件，提出了区域定量风险评价方法，并在某油气库区风险评价与安全规划中实际应用。通过分析计算，给出了该区域的个人风险等值线分布图和社会风险（F-N）曲线。结果表明，由于该地区液化石油气储量大，事故后果严重，且库区离居民区较近，周边企业较多，人口密集，使得个人风险和社会风险均超出了推荐标准的要求。该方法为进行城市重大危险源的安全规划提供了基础理论和技术方法，对进行城市土地使用及其他灾害领域的安全规划具有指导意义。

关键词：风险评价安全规划重大危险源城市规划